It is also rare for a country to win after receiving zero points from either the jury or the televote in its past five contest appearances. However, winning the contest twice this decade is unlikely. Israel’s average placement over the last five contests is 16 th, right in line with the overall average for winners. Its mid table finish of 16 th in Rotterdam would also be unusually high for a potential next victor. Of the nine non-Big 5 winners since 2010, five of them failed to qualify for the final at least once in their five previous appearances. Ironically, Cyprus’ flawless qualification record at the last five contests makes its potential victory less likely. Verdict: OUTĬyprus’ average placement at the last five contests is 15 th. They have either not participated or placed on a definitive side of the scoreboard, from 2 nd to 5 th place or 18 th place and below. Its 15 th place finish in Rotterdam puts it in the potential winner range, but no country this decade has won after placing in the middle of the pack at the previous contest. Serbia has averaged 20 th place over the last five contests. All averages have been rounded to the nearest whole number, when necessary. Note: In addition to a winning country since 2010 placing between 15 th and 21 st, on average, in the contest before its victory, the average of all those winning countries’ placements in the five years leading up to their wins is 16 th. With 18 th at the center of this range and 15 th and 21 st as the outer limits of it, this gives us a list of seven Eurovision 2021 competitors from which to draw next year’s champion. If we also exclude Azerbaijan as an outlier from the data, the average placement is 21 st. If we remove those three countries from the data, a Eurovision champion’s average placement the previous contest falls to 18 th, with only Azerbaijan finishing in the top ten.
(Excluded from this data are Ukraine and Portugal, two countries that did not participate in the contest immediately prior to their wins.) Sweden and Italy, two countries that almost always place well, and Austria, the only country this decade that did not qualify for the final in the contest immediately prior to its win, skew that number. Since Germany’s victory in 2010, the average placement of a winning country the contest before its win is 15 th. But since this is all in good fun and should not be taken TOO seriously, let’s soldier on.
Note: This article’s central argument is that numbers can trace a country’s momentum at Eurovision from year-to-year, so the cancellation of Eurovision 2020 leaves a hole in the data. But how are these odds determined? What if we could predict the favorites to win in 2022, using the last decade or so as our guide? Can math predict momentum? Let’s find out. The below editorial features the opinions and views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of #escYOUnited as a whole, Eurovision, or the EBU.Įvery year, the discussion of odds rears its ugly head.
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